What lies
underneath the presidential elections in Belarus? Basically the elections in Belarus have
already been held. Of course some information background noise is still heard.
Other members of the “useless mass cast’ are finishing playing their roles.
However the final result is well-known. It is not that Alexander Lukashenko
will stay president for a few more turbulent years after skilful negotiations
and artful combinations with new intermediaries. This outcome was known without
the current “peculiarities of the game”. The real issue is what Lukashenko will
stay with, what liabilities (financial, staff and debt) he will have after the
elections and who the holders of these liabilities or broadly defined creditors
will be. Another issue is what the main players in this game will get for the
elegant “aid in the game”.

Berezovsky

Berezovsky can
be much talked about. For many people Berezovsky is something abstract and
unfathomable. Boris Berezovsky constantly keeps his mysterious aura. It is
about his money. It is about his protection. It is about his potential to hold
a “banal process”. In fact Boris Abramovich is a smart Alec. He is a pragmatic
person, the type who is very rare nowadays. He knows very well what he needs in
Belarus
and why. Lukashenko is really his big partner today. It is not about ideology
or some hypothetical “anti/Putin rhetoric” of these two personalities.
Lukashenko has valuable assets and he also has big needs. Concrete plants and
concrete goods are in high demand among neighbors. At the same time AG
(Alexander Grigoryevich Lukashenko) has a peculiar “credit history’. As it
turned out paradoxically it can be sold quite dearly in the West. In fact Boris
Abramovich has been doing it for a few years.

Everything got
started with little but pleasant trifles. For example a bit more than a year
ago Berezovsky employed a pensioner Igor Zhilin at Grodno chemical plant “Azot”. Is it a trifle?
It would be if you ignore the fact that the real manager of this important
plant is not in the hands of Zhilin but a modest “consultant’ Dmitry Bossov.
Nitrogen fertilizers alongside with potash fertilizers are the items for
Lithuanians and Poles that force them like Lukashenko take part in the
presidential election campaign on his side (see more details about it below).
However Boris Berezovsky’s plans are much more ambitious. He must carry out so
called pre-sale preparation of all sectors of the Belarusian economy and make
corresponding offers to AG. In exchange for this deal Berezovsky also promised
his friend – partner quite feasible things 
- attracting 1.5-2 billion US dollars of investment and also the
recognition of the next presidential term by the West. In this situation
Lukashenko is a guarantor of investments. In fact six months ago two scenarios
were worked out to ensure another term of Lukashenko monopoly – a Lithuanian
scenario and a polish scenario (see more detail about them below). A bit later
Boris Abramovich made his own personal application to the game. As his
application presumed more comprehensive solution the interested parties decided
to choose it.

Scenarios

Let’s begin
with Poles. If somebody is still missing the point Poland has its own format of
Lukashenko’s “elegant” victory. It is the project of “Sikorsky group”. The
basic incentive is Gdynya (big potash fertilizers reloading logistical
capacity). AG’s guys and their Polish intermediaries have been working there
quite successfully. Plus stolen gas. Belarusians stole some volumes of transit gas.
Russia
(due to some reasons) chose to close its eyes on it. Poles … sold this stolen gas.
Everybody made profit. In recent two – three years many points of common
interest emerged and the Poles found it difficult .. to get rid of Lukashenko.
Diesel fuel and building an across border mineral products pipeline. Low octane
gasoline. Average size reservoirs alongside the border. The company “Zomar” was
interested in purchasing the excessive volumes of electric energy. While Prime
Minister of Poland Donald Tusk was involved in active negotiations with Russia about
partnership, a very ambitious minister of foreign affairs arranged his own
project – a “Belarusian” one. He was quick in finding Alexander Milinkevich’s
successor. A set of managers of the campaign was pulled together. These
managers (Belarusians) were tested on the lie detector. A concrete program was
offered to… Lukashenko. In the beginning Alexander Grigoryevich liked this
polish plan as he was interested just in one thing – his own juridical
legitimization after the elections. It is not only about power. It is also
about personal savings.

However a
force majeure situation happened. Its name was Lithuania. As it turned out “if
Lukashenko remains in power and the agreement with his can be struck on a few
issues many sectors of the Lithuanian economy can be revived”. Lithuania
decided to put everything on stake. Lukashenko immediately joined this game. So
far we keep silent about Klaipedos nafta» but the project to save it was
emerging on the horizon – reloading of considerable volume of crude oil. It is
much work not only for a sea port but also for the rail road. In addition is
means the development of the supporting infrastructure. It means orders and
money that can feed the economy in deep trouble. At this point a skeptic can
say that the basic “reloading scenario” is still pending. Ukraine is also trying to get its say in the
game (by using the oil pipe “Odessa
– Brody”). I respond by saying that AG is also a smart Alec. He also understood
the essence of the game where fish is caught at the live bait. At this point
the Klaipeda
port is used to reload potash fertilizers by considerable volumes. In addition
the port is used for reloading and shipping different construction goods to a
few Latin American “democracies”. Let’s recognize that Lithuanians did not have
their own project to legalize another term in office for Lukashenko. It is not their
level. It is not in their power. But it is important to emphasize their maniac
and nervous desire to “make economic friends” with Belarus. This desire of the two
irreconcilable enemies of the not so distant past stirred something in AG’s
brain. He understood that many parties desire his next presidential term and
that the price they are willing to pay for it (quite a nice paradox) can be
much higher.

Well, what
does Andrei Sannikov have to do with it? So far he has no place in this
setting. He will come later. The reason we are talking about him is that after
endless agreements and intense negotiations he is the marked card of the
complex project under the title “electing Lukashenko for another term as a
Tsar’. At this point let’s talk a bit about Russians. They are like the
partners who have been hurt and abused. Let’s talk about the key reason of
their over nervous reaction that was manifested in their well-known cycle of
the summer “information attacks”. Well, Russians were so “smart” that they did
not notice the activities of Lithuanians and Poles in Minsk until the very last moment. This
situation of blissful arrogance was changed when messengers from Anatoly
Gennadyevich Lomakin (International Potash Company) came to Moscow and visited the people of power.
Lomakin is not well-known in Belarus.
he is considered to be the king of “Baltic seas reloading and shipping”.
Russian companies that are directly or indirectly tied with Lomakin, Orlov and
Rybolovlev and recently kerimov control reloading and shipping operations in Riga and Ventspils. In
fact Kerimov and his company “Silvinit” plays its own independent and quite
interesting game in Belarus.
But let’s go back to the mentioned above threesome. Each of they are very much
interested in autonomous projects of Lukashenko. The schemes that were in
operation for many years are being broken down. Traditional transit corridors
are being revised. New financial industrial groups are taking the leading
position. Why do they do it? They can not block Lukashenko’s independent
projects already. The reason is that the third actor joined the game. His plan
has finally been accepted by AG. The name of the player is Berezovsky.

The role of
Berezovsky is much subtler. He is to prove that in spite of his personal
eccentricity he is a rather good manager who can get a few neighboring
countries out of crisis and considerably reduce the influence of Putin’s team
monopolistic influence on East European markets. The totality of these factors
and the thesis that “Lukashenko is a profitable partner” dominated the European
political thought. Berezovsky creatively processed this plan. Accroding to this
plan Sannikov got the part of one of the first “purifiers”. Of course Sannikov
by himself is of no interest to anybody. However in the framework of a big and
cynical project “purification and legitimization” he is an ideal candidate.

Sannikov

It is always
important to have a person who knows perfectly well what lobbyism in the USA is
about. It is about knowing where to go, what to say and whom to get acquainted
with. It is all about having your conclusions to dominate in the targeted
social groups and organizations. It is a person to get the right type of
communications. Sand again please note that there is ideology here. No
hypothetical intelligence or counterintelligence. It is pure and highly
profitable business. If a lobbyist manages to prove the importance of this or
that topic he and his group can open access to a considerable volume of
resources. Alas, unfortunately to lobbyist who deal with Belarus “Belarusian budgets” are hundreds of
times smaller that the budgets for Afghanistan
or Iraq.
In this situation a different approached could be applied. And it was indeed
applied. “You should only intrigue much and talk about yourself much. Keep
repeating that you are a tough guy” – Sannikov was listening to the right kind
of tutoring. “And I will ensure this
information to reach the right ears. The most important thing is to do
something so that there is an impression about your sincerity and that there is
no alternative to you”.

Here we have a
simple and straightforward marketing plan. A bubble is inflated. The bubble is branded.
Fees are collected. “Inflate yourself much in the internet. Just inflate
yourself” – this recommendation is easy to follow. In fact Sannikov and his
small theatrical team (in direct and indirect sense) have rich and quite
successful experience. Sannikov and Co managed to “sell” to foreign sponsors a
few fine “dummies”. They were simple and pleasant to deal with. All these
projects like “Zubr” (youth steer fight initiative), web sites,
T-shirts/newspapers with circulation of “1million” copies and the real
circulation of 100 copies had no real impact on the situation inside Belarus.
However all these things created excellent pictures for external use. I can not
say that Sannikov was unique in it but Andrei Olegovich made “bubble blowing”
much better that others. He is a talented bubble blower. So let’s go slowly
back to the still unfinished project “Sannikov – candidate X”. This time the
team of “PR-theater actors’ had to inflate Andrei Olegovich himself. First  if he is inflated well enough he can take
over a very promising niche of the “first opposition player’ for the next two –
three years. The consequences of such status are quite lucrative. Secondly, a
well-inflated personality can be invited to join the game of other parties.
That time Sannikov did not know who and what game will play in Belarus in the
end of 2010. But he knew that the game would take place, that the game must
take place. the stakes were very high and he needed access to…

The game

It was
February/march 2010. it was the time when the game “Milinkevich/Sikorsky” was
about to be over. Due to a few reasons Milinkevich could no longer be a player
who could ensure the final result. The game had new rules. A new “favorite leader’
had to be launched. arrests of a few journalists took place (in the criminal
case of unknown general Korzh who is of almost no interest to anybody). It
looked as Sannikov was put sever pressure on. But we should note that it was a
strange kind of pressure. No real consequences and no concrete accusations
except for one outcome. His name was revived. In fact this three move classical
combination solved the basic task – the creation of a big illusion. Task № 1
was just ot revive the name of the politician who was in the margins of the
politics for a long time. Task №2 was to prove that Sannikov was against
Lukashenko that he was alien to him. It is not that difficult in Belarus, isn’t
it?

The game
itself looks quite easy and simple. It is breathtakingly simple. Nine opposition
politicals managed to collect 100, 000 signatures. Lukashenko flatteringly says
that all of the have worked well and tha all of them would take part in the
elections. Lidiya Mikhailovna Yermoshina flatteringly gave the candidates
certificated of registration. Actually why should anyone be removed from the race?

However a big
question arises. How can a person without infrastructure, human resources,
money and some popularity can collect one hundred thousand real live human
signatures? a weird picture emerges. It is obviously fake but AG behaves as a
smart Alec again. He easily agrees to recognize this fake picture. “Do you want
freedom? You are welcome. Everything in our country is super-democratic. Any loser
can take part in the elections. We pretend we do not notice that they are losers”.

And now comes
the most interesting part. Originally the plan resembled the one that was
carried out in 2006 with some adjustments though. Lukashenko had to beat a
strong “opposition” 9formally though) candidate. Gaidukevich can not be such a
candidate. Sannikov Andrei Olegovich can be such a candidate. He is the
candidate who is well-inflated with opposition rhetoric. “Lukashenko against
Sannikov” is an ideal final picture. Everybody would be pleased to believe in
it. Both inside and outside the country. As it turned out later even more
“elegant” and much more predictable campaign can be held.

The original
tough scenario suggested by Berezovsky when a well-inflated opposition
presidential candidate (or a conditional single candidate) loses to the
incumbent president was abandoned. The tough scenario was not well-accepted by
highly suspicious Lukashenko. Sannikov (as the only alternative) could get off
the hook at some moment and even think of himself as a “real alternative”. He
could look for additional support among potential investors and get a much
better result. “It is a dangerous scenario”, other consultants argued. That is
why in the process of its implementations it was amended a few times. The sharply
changed “European” and ‘Russian’ attitudes were taken into account. First,
Sannikov remained a key partner in any case. In this role as a actor in the
game of other people he is absolutely predictable as he does not have the
slightest chance to influence the internal situation. He does not have any
meaningful resources (financial, human). In addition he does not have any
connections in nomenclature and does not have his own team either. he is just
an ideal candidate. But what Sannikov has is his good visual (internet)
picture, an artificially inflated www-profile. it can be easily printed and
placed in front of the yes of the lazy Westerners. This profile can easily
persuade them that Sannikov is a really strong Belarusian politician who can
attract stadiums full of people during his presidential campaign. I. e. Sannikov should symbolize a real alternative to
Lukashenko. Secondly, Sannikov will get his 14 – 18% of “support”. This number may
vary. He will get the number that Lukashenko will be merciful enough to give
him. Nobody counts ballot papers anyway. Votes are not counted in Belarus.
Election commissions just collect ballot papers from ballot boxes, pretend that
they count votes and then the ballot papers are burnt. Final protocols are
prepared beforehand. In this scenario Sannikov (as a basic partner and as a
proof of the honesty of intentions) will get about 15%. It will be exactly
three and a half times more that his next opposition opponent gets. The rest
more or less real candidates from the opposition (there are three of them, the
others – are just additional election process “noise”). will get from 0.5% to
3%. It is close to a statistical error. In fact this point is of no interest to
Lukashenko but it is of much interest to … Sannikov. Such “percentage”
humiliation of other real candidates is his main bonus. Money for the campaign
is just technical expenditures but the big gap (it is ensured by Lidiya
Mikhailovna Yermoshina’s rude fingures) is the reason why Sannikov is blown up.
After the presidential elections Sannikov will take over the niche of
Milinkevich. He will personify an alternative who is awarded for his courage.
Other opposition candidates who were let in the presidential race will be
offered a cold treatment. Their aggregate result should prove (primarily to
Westerners) that they are not influential at all and that the whole traditional
opposition movement is degraded and impotent. AG will get additional moral
satisfaction. Public humiliation of all the opposition is a fine treat. “Hey you, your best price is 2%. What will
you like to get? parliamentary elections? Positions of ministers? Dialogue of
the equals?” Of course Lukashenko will not give Sannikov a final award for
this kind of moral perk. He is too greedy but the conclusion can be made quite
impressive. The real opposition loses all trump cards for further enforcement
of the authorities in negotiations and compromises. Well, this Boris Abramovich
is such a smart guy! He managed to cheaply buy for Lukashenko another
monopolistic term in office and get rid of his traditional opponents on the
external markets with the held of free PR.

Thirdly,
Lukashenko deliberately kept almost 10 formal opponents in the game. it is for
the sake of attention dispersion. It is voice cacophony. It is the way to beget
indifference both inside the country and in external political markets. It is a
simple but very effective technology. It is convincing for Westerners, “Well
they (traditional opposition leaders) have not even crossed the threshold of a statistical
error. Why should be talk to them?”. It is a humiliating result for the
internal alternative. “Get mathematical evidence of your corporate impotence!”
It is a new much more subtle AG’s handwriting in the game. He changes quickly
and gets the second breath and additional resources. Paradoxically this
presidential campaign which should hit and hurt his Ego hardest suddenly turns
into new opportunities for the incumbent. Fourthly it is a very distinct
differentiation of the “candidates”. Everybody has his own mission. some of
them are managed and other are not. Only one candidate (Sannikov) is a boringly
and wholly predictable partner in this card game. The other two candidates with
the potential that has not been explored are Neklyaev and Romanchuk. At one
point in the past Neklyaev played in a different scenario but he turned to
become a highly unreliable partner and even managed to frighten Lukashenko.
After that Neklyaev faced financial difficulties. Romanchuk is a total stranger
in these scenarios. He is unpredictable. The best way for the authorities is
just to ignore him. But for Lukashenko it is absolutely important to humiliate
these two persons and give them the results in the area of statistical error.
The other six candidates are just “technical
candidates for Lukashenko”. It does not matter whether they are playing
consciously or without any knowledge of the scenario. Money, ambition and lack
of brain power push them into the game.

Massive access
to the race of technical candidates is the technology that is quite popular in
Ukraine. the role of technical candidates is to talk a topic to the point of
boredom and indifference. Words do not matter. What matters is to make people
tired and lost. The goal is to break the support of activists and to create
irritating election noise. shall I mention names here? These guys should be
given credit. In spite of low level of creativity they are quite successful in
playing their parts in the scenario. Some candidates are sincerely unaware of
the scenario. Others are driven by vanity. They should not even be financed.
The result in this game is quite predictable. it is legalized and wooed
Lukashenko. The Lukashenko who is a guarantor of Polish, Lithuanian and
Berezovsky interest. Sannikov is played to the point of becoming a “single
candidate”. He will remain with this status after “the triumphant and
democratic elections in 2010”. He will get the right to go abroad and to
“legitimately” prove the following, “I am
a single democratic candidate. My rating is quite high and I got a very good
result. I have not beaten Lukashenko yet. But only I am a real fighter. Other are
midgets. A bunch of nobodies”. He will be willingly trusted referring to
the “results” of the elections. Hence Sannikov is a real alternative for the
coming years. he will get money and access to communication channels. Andrei
Olegovich will gladly replace Alexander Vladimirovich Milinkevich (this person
has reasons to be outraged because of the “undemocratic” nature of the
presidential elections).

This is a pure
(European) pragmatic approach if somebody is still missing the essence of the
presidential election campaign. One of its players will get access to the
current budget (it is a payment for being a pawn in the game) and to future
budgets too. We talk about the money to keep the promotion bubble blown. The
money will also be spent to talk about the opposition nature of the “real” opposition
to Lukashenko personified by Sannikov in external political markets for the
coming five years. Can such an offer be rejected? Can Sannikov ignore his
personal bonus in exchange for the five year decoration to legalize Lukashenko?
He is an ideal “Decorator S”…

Author:  Michael
PODOLYAK